It was a squeaker, but Congress got it done. The federal government is open and funded into next year, and there will not be a Christmas shutdown after President Joe Biden on Saturday signed the American Relief Act, 2025, the stopgap spending package passed by the House and Senate late last week.
That legislation sailed through the House in 366-34-1 vote and was then approved by the Senate 85-11 shortly after the Friday night shutdown deadline. It keeps federal agencies running through March 14, provides $110 billion in emergency disaster relief and financial assistance to farmers, and extends the farm bill for a year. However, it does not address the debt limit, as President-elect Donald Trump had wanted, leaving that for the 119th Congress to take up. It also left out restrictions on outbound investments in China and reforms to healthcare middlemen known as pharmacy benefit managers that were expected to lower prescription drug costs.
Separately, the Senate also passed a Social Security reform bill (see more below) and two measures, approved by unanimous consent, that had been cut from the larger spending package. One, the Gabriella Miller Kids First Research Act, extends $12.6 million in annual funding for pediatric cancer research for seven years. The other bill transfers control of the site of Robert F. Kennedy Memorial Stadium to the District of Columbia, opening the door for the Washington Commanders to move from the suburbs back to the capital.
The year-end drama may be over, but the messy process by which the bill passed sets up a new spending fight for early in Trump’s coming term and leaves some lingering questions ahead of the new year:
How tight is Trump’s grip on congressional Republicans? Trump went so far last week as to suggest that any Republican who didn’t vote for an increase or suspension of the debt limit should face a primary challenge. Yet 37 Republicans in the Senate and 170 in the House voted for a continuing resolution that did not meet Trump’s demand. And dozens of House Republicans voted against a previous version of the funding package that did address Trump’s demand.
In short, the Republicans again displayed the same divisions, disarray and disunity that they had throughout the 118th Congress. Republicans will have slender majorities in the Senate and especially in the House. If members are willing to continue bucking their leadership, it will be hard for the GOP to govern effectively over the next two years, even as the party controls all the levers of power in Washington, D.C.
Can Mike Johnson win another term as speaker? Johnson told reporters after the House vote on Friday that the result was good for the country and that Trump “was certainly happy about this outcome, as well.” Apparently not.
“Not only is Trump unhappy with the funding deal, he’s unhappy with Johnson, too,” Politico’s Rachael Bade reported Monday morning. “He’s unhappy that he didn’t get the debt ceiling hike he made clear he wanted. He felt blindsided by the initial deal Johnson struck with Democrats. And, in the end, he was unimpressed with the entire chaotic process, which left the incoming administration questioning whether Johnson is capable of managing an even thinner majority next year.”
Plenty of Republican House members are skeptical about or opposed to Johnso’s leadership. He will need Trump’s support to keep the speaker’s gavel in a January 3 House vote, and it’s reportedly not clear whether the president-elect will ignore any lingering resentments and throw Johnson a lifeline. Bade reports that Trump now considers Johnson to be waffling and weak.
“Those close to Trump don’t expect the president-elect to outright call for Johnson to go, though that could still happen,” Bade writes. “What seems more likely is that should Trump decide he’d prefer a different partner leading the House, he simply lets Johnson flail as he struggles to land 218 votes.”
Yet Trump and Republicans are also leery of another protracted battle over the speakership that could leave the House paralyzed, much as it was for weeks after then-Speaker Kevin McCarthy was ousted.
“The speaker’s fate could ultimately come down to Trump’s gut,” Bade suggests. That must be an uncomfortable reality for Johnson, who has less than two weeks to shore up the support he’ll need.
Do Republicans have a plan for the debt limit? As they scrambled last week to line up votes for their funding bill, Republicans reportedly outlined plans to raise the debt ceiling by $1.5 trillion and cut $2.5 trillion in net mandatory spending as part of their first budget reconciliation package. Trump, who added about $8 trillion to the national debt in his first term as president, was pushing for room to add trillions more, potentially easing the path to an extension of his 2017 tax cuts. Such an extension would cost about $4 trillion over a decade, according to some estimates — which just so happens to match the amount of increased debt and reduced spending Republicans discussed.
What happens in three months? Republicans will face another shutdown deadline in the middle of March, just as they’ll also be trying to enact Trump’s agenda — and they’ll once again need Democratic votes to keep the government running. The chaotic mess of last week may just be a preview of what’s ahead.
