Trump Admin to Tap Emergency Oil Reserve

Good evening. Here's what we're watching as we recalculate the odds of 41-year-old LeBron James leading the Philadelphia 76ers to a championship this season.

Trump Admin to Tap Emergency Heating Oil Reserve

With energy prices surging ahead of the midterm elections, the Trump administration said Wednesday that it will release up to 315,000 barrels of fuel oil from the Northeast Home Heating Oil Reserve.

"The Trump Administration is committed to doing everything in our power to lower energy costs for the American people," Energy Secretary Chris Wright said in a statement.

Wright added that the move comes in response to communications with Sens. Susan Collins and Angus King of Maine. Collins, a Republican, is in the middle of a tough reelection campaign against Democratic challenger Troy Jackson, in a political season that is being shaped by voter anger about high prices, especially for energy.

The Northeast oil reserve holds about 1 million barrels of ultra-low sulfur distillate, which is similar to diesel, in storage facilities stretching from New York to Maine, a region that is heavily reliant on fuel oil during the winter. In the past, the reserve has been used in response to severe storms that have caused temporary shortages. The current global shortage of diesel, which is pushing prices to record highs, is related to disruptions caused by President Trump's war with Iran.

The planned release is not expected to affect fuel prices significantly. As Bloomberg notes, about 1.2 million barrels of diesel and other distillate fuels are consumed on the East Coast every day. Companies that borrow fuel are obligated to "return the same volume of fuel oil plus a premium," so the reserve is filled up ahead of next year's heating season.

Chart of the Day: Bad Vibes on the Economy

University of Michigan economist Justin Wolfers notes an interesting and widely discussed anomaly in his newsletter today: Americans are much less happy about the economy than the underlying data would predict.

As the chart below illustrates, consumers should be fairly satisfied with the economy right now, based on historical trends and current data. But consumer sentiment as measured by a major survey is at an all-time low. Why is that?

Wolfers offers a theory about the big discrepancy between the state of the economy and the vibes felt by millions of consumers. In short, Wolfers thinks that Americans have lost faith in the people who are managing the economy and are therefore concerned about their futures.

Using survey data, Wolfers determines that far more people now think the government is doing a bad job managing the economy - doing things like fighting inflation and unemployment - than think the government is doing a good job, and the difference between the two groups has never been larger.

Wolfers concludes that Americans feeling negative vibes about the economy are not misreading the situation. Instead, they are "reading the people running it," he says. "And their verdict today is the harshest on record."

Fiscal News Roundup

• US to Tap Heating Oil Reserve as Prices Soar Before Election – Bloomberg
• It's Not Just Gas and Groceries. Childcare Costs Weigh on Some Voters Before the Midterm Elections – Associated Press
• The DNC Says MAGA Inc Is Airing Another Ad Created With Taxpayer Dollars – Washington Sun
• Trump Administration Asks Supreme Court to Allow Big Bend Border Wall Construction – The Hill
• Wyden Demands Details of Malta Tax Avoidance Schemes – Politico
• The Trump Administration Wants More Tax Charges. It's Going to Be Tough – Wall Street Journal
• 'This Is How You Blow up a Permitting Deal': Sen. Whitehouse Slams Trump Over Offshore Wind – Politico
• Pentagon Grants DHS Permission to Test Heat Ray Weapon for Potential Use at Border – CNN
• Musk-Backed PACS Have Spent Over $400 Million on Advertising – Washington Post
• United CEO Scott Kirby Says US National Wealth Tax Seems Fair – Bloomberg
• In San Francisco, a Family Earning $325,000 Qualifies for Government Aid – New York Times

Views and Analysis

• When It Comes to Trump's Economy, These Are the Numbers That Matter Before Nov. 3 – Josh Boak and Melissa Goldin, Associated Press
• A 'Golden Age' vs. 'We're Working on It': Trump and Vance Give Different Pitches on the Economy – Michelle L. Price, Associated Press
• Everything Feels So Expensive. Here's What's Really Going On – Natasha Sarin, New York Times
• Trump's Fixation on Transactional Politics Becomes an Election Season Scandal – Steve Benen, MS NOW
• The Increasingly Brazen Stories About Possible Trump Administration Corruption – Aaron Blake, CNN
• The Cascading Absurdities of a Downward-Spiraling Presidency – George F. Will, Washington Post
• The Treasury Market's Power Brokers Are Pickier Than Ever – Cameron Fozi, Greg Ritchie, and Kyle Kim, Bloomberg
• The AI Boom Is Setting Up the Fed for a Rate Seesaw – Bill Dudley, Bloomberg
• In Six Decades of Public Life, I Never Thought I Would Write This Piece – Robert E. Rubin, New York Times