The time-tested formula for frontrunners in US presidential primaries is to engage less and less with their primary opponents as the race goes on, and to talk more and more about defeating the likely candidate from the other party. The idea is to create a sense of inevitability – the feeling that the rest of the primary is really a formality that ought to be dispensed with as quickly as possible so that the eventual nominee can turn his or her guns toward the “real” target.
Right now, GOP frontrunner Donald Trump is beginning to embrace that strategy, and it will likely be on display tonight, in the 12th Republican debate of the primary. How long he can maintain a front of presidential cool, though, is another question.
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So far in this campaign, we've learned that Trump doesn’t have a lot of interest in or respect for most of the conventional wisdom about political campaigns; in the main, his refusal to follow the usual rules now looks pretty smart.
However, Trump also recognizes the value of delegitimizing his opponents. In fact, it’s been a hallmark of his campaign. From his ridiculing of former Texas governor Rick Perry through his assaults on Florida Sen. “Little” Marco Rubio, making his opposition look like poseurs has been vital to Trump’s success.
That’s where, at this point in the campaign, conventional wisdom and the Trump campaign strategy converge. He is now a heavy favorite to win the GOP nomination, and what Trump needs to do is create the impression that the whole thing is really over.
He signaled where he’s probably going at the beginning of a speech Tuesday night, delivered after it was announced that he had won the evening’s two biggest primaries in Michigan and Mississippi. In his remarks, he tried to position himself as the de facto leader of the Republican Party.
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“I must tell you, it’s very, very important, as a Republican, that our senators and that our Congressmen get reelected and that we put a good group of people together, that we keep the people who are there,” he told a crowd packed with members of one of his Florida golf clubs. “We have some terrific people, not all of them are on my side, but we have some terrific people and it’s very, very important if we’re going to be effective. It’s very, very important.”
He went on to claim that “the single biggest story in politics today” is the GOP’s large turnout in the primary elections held so far – something he has not been shy about taking credit for.
Bloomberg’s Billy House reported Wednesday that Trump has begun reaching out to GOP establishment figures, like House Speaker Paul Ryan, who indirectly criticized him for stoking racial and religious animosities in the GOP electorate last week. Trump called the talks “conciliatory” and said that he respects Ryan and, "I think he respects me. I think he really does respect what I’ve done."
The big question is whether Trump can stick to a strategy of appearing presidential tonight, when his opponents inevitably bring up the various scandals and criticisms dogging his campaign. The smart money says no, he can't. All available evidence suggests The Donald is constitutionally incapable of backing down when he is called on the manifold inconsistencies in his autobiographical narrative of uninterrupted success.
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For example, in last week's debate, he replied to criticism of Trump University’s business practices with a response that the Better Business Bureau subsequently revealed to be an outright lie.
The most recent evidence was on view in front of him Tuesday night, even as Trump did his best Republican standard-bearer impression. After being criticized by former GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney for the failure of the Trump Steaks business, as well as Trump Vodka, Trump Ice water, and other brands, he couldn’t resist defending the indefensible.
The table was stacked with an unappetizing pile of raw steaks, which sat there under the hot lights throughout his performance. They were there to prove Romney wrong, by demonstrating that the Trump Steaks brand is alive and well.
But it’s not, and it took virtually no effort by reporters to determine that Trump Steaks are on sale literally nowhere.
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And better yet, when someone decided to zoom in on a photograph of the pile of raw meat warming under the TV lights, it became clear that the steaks’ plastic wrapping was labeled. But the labels didn’t say “Trump Steaks.” They said “Bush Brothers.”
So, Trump will probably try to remain presidential tonight, but his need to lash out against criticism, even if doing so requires transparent fabrication, doesn’t appear to be something he can control. If he can keep the act together beyond the first commercial break, it will be a big surprise.
