Happy Election Day! We made it! On the national level, Americans are picking a new commander in chief — either the first woman president in U.S. history or the first president since Grover Cleveland in 1892 to win a second term in office after previously losing a reelection bid (and the first to be a convicted felon.) Voters are also deciding which party will control the House and the Senate.
Turnout has reportedly been strong.
The first polls will fully close starting at 7 p.m. ET, and voting will end in the key battleground states between 7 p.m. and 10 p.m. tonight. The vote counts from some key states may not be fully tallied until late tonight or tomorrow, and there’s a chance we might not know the winner for some time.
As voters went to the polls, Vice President Kamala Harris did some last-minute radio interviews today. She plans to attend an election night party tonight at her alma mater, Howard University in Washington, D.C. She told reporters Sunday that she had sent in her mail-in ballot to California.
Former President Donald Trump cast his ballot in Florida today after a late-night rally in Grand Rapids, Michigan, that stretched past 2 a.m. Trump is scheduled to attend a party in Palm Beach tonight. “I feel very confident,” Trump told reporters. “You know, we went in with a very big lead today,” he added, despite polls showing a deadlocked race, “and it looks like Republicans have shown up in force, so we’ll see how it turns out.”
Asked if he had any regrets about his campaign, Trump said: “I can’t think of any.”
While we wait for the results, we’ve got a look at some other key numbers that have defined this election.
The Defining Numbers of the 2024 Presidential Race
93: The Electoral College map appears to have Harris entering Election Day with 226 votes to 219 for Trump, with 93 electoral votes in seven swing states set to decide the race. The magic number needed is, of course, 270.
20%: Those seven swing states — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — together represent less than 20% of the U.S. population, the Associated Press notes.
721, 107 and 92: It has been 721 days since former President Donald Trump announced that he would seek another term in office, 107 days since President Joe Biden dropped out of the race and 92 days since Vice President Kamala Harris secured the Democratic nomination.
80: Combined visits by the presidential campaigns, including that of President Joe Biden, to Pennsylvania dating back to March, according to the AP. That’s the most campaign stops of any swing state, and it’s not surprising given that Pennsylvania’s 19 electoral votes are also the most among the seven states. Michigan has hosted presidential campaigns 63 times, while Wisconsin saw 50 visits and North Carolina got 45. Arizona, Georgia and Nevada were visited 27, 26 and 25 times, respectively.
$1.64 billion: The total campaign funding raised by 2024 presidential candidates, according to Federal Election Commission data as of October 17 compiled by OpenSecrets, which tracks money in U.S. politics. Outside groups supporting the campaigns have raised roughly $1.7 billion.
Vice President Kamala Harris has dominated on the financial front. She raised more than $1 billion and outside groups backing her have added about $586 million. Former President Donald Trump has raised about $382 million, with outside money accounting for another $694 million.
“But in some ways it’s the donors, not the money, that’s most revealing,” Politico’s Jessica Piper wrote on Friday. “Donors are a subset of voters, tending to reflect the most engaged supporters on either side. And Harris has a massive donor advantage: Her operation, carried over from President Joe Biden, has more than twice as many donors as Trump's campaign apparatus.”
$10.8 billion: Total political ad spending — not just on the presidential race — since January 2023, according to AdImpact. That includes $6.1 billion spent just since September — and just shy of $1 billion spent in the last week.
“Since Harris took over the top of the ticket, the Presidential race has seen over $2.3B in ad spending. With Election Day tomorrow, Democratic advertisers will end up with a $460M spending advantage over Republicans,” Ad Impact said Monday. Harris has gotten $1.26 billion worth of advertising support, compared to $932.5 million for Trump. And more than $272 million has been spent on ads in the presidential race just over the last week, CNBC reported Sunday, citing AdImpact data.
34: Republicans are favored in the race to control the Senate, where Democrats now hold a slim 51-49 majority. Voters are casting ballots for 34 Senate seats, including 23 that are being defended by Democrats. Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia, a Democrat turned independent, is retiring, and Republicans are certain to pick up that seat, which by itself could be enough to give the GOP control of the Senate if Trump wins the White House.
22: Of the 435 House seats, just 22 are considered true toss ups, including 10 held by Democrats and 12 by Republicans. Democrats hope to undo Republicans’ 2022 gains in blue states, most notably New York and California.
86 million: Nearly 86 million voters cast their ballots before Election Day, either in person (about 47 million) or by mail (about 39 million), according to the Election Lab at the University of Florida.
Trump’s Tariffs Could Cost Consumers $78 Billion a Year: Report
Former President Donald Trump plans to use tariffs to punish foreign competitors, boost domestic production and provide revenues to offset the cost of an extensive list of new tax cuts, including the elimination of income taxes on tips, overtime pay and Social Security benefits. Many economists, however, have warned that Trump’s tariffs would fall far short of achieving those goals, and result instead in higher prices for a wide range of goods. A study this week from the National Retail Federation put a number on the potential cost of those higher prices for U.S. consumers: up to $78 billion a year.
The NRF report looks at how Trump’s proposed tariffs — a 10% to 20% levy on all imported goods, and 60% to 100% on goods coming from China — would affect six major consumer categories: clothing, toys, furniture, household appliances, footwear and travel goods. The analysis found that the tariffs would have a “significant and detrimental impact” on the prices of goods in those categories, particularly those made in China, and result in cost increases far too large for U.S. retailers to absorb. The resulting price increases at the retail level would reduce consumer purchasing power by $46 billion to $78 billion a year, depending on which set of tariffs was implemented. For individual households, the cost increase would be $362 to $624.
Clothing would cost $13.9 billion to $24 billion more for consumers overall as a result of the tariffs, while footwear would cost $6.4 billion to $10.7 billion more. Shoppers would spend $8.8 billion to $14.2 billion more for toys; $8.5 billion to $13.1 billion more for furniture; $6.4 billion to $10.9 billion more for household appliances; and $2.2 billion to $3.9 billion more for travel goods.
The report provides some specific examples. A $100 winter coat would cost $12 to $21 more, while a $50 tricycle would cost $18 to $28 more. The price of a $2,000 mattress and box spring set would increase by $128 to $190, and a $650 refrigerator would go up by $126 to $202. And the price of running shoes would increase, too, with a $90 pair costing $16 to $26 more.
Jonathan Gold, vice president at NRF, said retailers currently rely heavily on imported goods to keep prices low for U.S. consumers, and Trump’s proposed tariffs would raise costs significantly. “A tariff is a tax paid by the U.S. importer, not a foreign country or the exporter,” he said. “This tax ultimately comes out of consumers’ pockets through higher prices.”
Fiscal News Roundup
- Exit Poll: Voters Express Deep Concern About America’s Democracy and Economy – NBC News
- Democracy, Economy Are Top Issues as Discontented Americans Vote – Bloomberg
- Two Different Americas Converged at the Polls. Only One Can Win – Washington Post
- Harris and Trump Both Want Major Tax Changes. Here’s What They’re Proposing — and the Impact on You – CBS News
- Kamala Harris Cheers End of Boeing Machinist Strike That Idled Assembly Lines for 7 Weeks – Associated Press
- Trump's Tariff Plan Could Cost Americans $78 Bln in Annual Spending, NRF Study Shows – Reuters
- Despite Sharp Decline, Inflation Remains a Sore Point for Harris – Reuters
Views and Analysis
- Trump and Harris Have Ignored a Looming Crisis – Bloomberg Editorial Board
- I’m a Presidential Historian. This Is My Biggest Regret About Trump – Jon Meacham, New York Times
- The Recession That Wasn’t and the Election of 2024 – Harold Meyerson, American Prospect
- Yes, America Can Fail – Eduardo Porter, Washington Post
- Who Would Your Bank Account Vote For? – Jessica Karl, Bloomberg