Happy Monday! We’re almost to the finish line. Here’s your election eve update.
Trump Threatens New Tariffs on Mexico in Final Day Before Election
A wild presidential campaign full of stunning twists and turns is culminating with one last day of furious campaigning before Tuesday’s final day of voting. Vice President Kamala Harris is focusing on the crucial battleground of Pennsylvania, making a series of stops across the state before ending the night with a campaign event in Philadelphia that will feature a number of celebrities, including Lady Gaga, The Roots and Oprah Winfrey. Former President Donald Trump held a morning rally in Raleigh, North Carolina, before moving on to events in Reading and Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. “Here’s my only purpose in even being here today: Get out and vote,” Trump told the crowd in Raleigh. He is slated to hold his final campaign rally tonight in Grand Rapids, Michigan.
Trump warned he might impose new tariffs on goods from Mexico: At his North Carolina event — The New York Times described it as a 90-minute, grievance-filled speech at an arena with some notably empty rows of seats — Trump said that, if elected, he would issue an ultimatum to Mexico’s new president, Claudia Sheinbaum. “If they don’t stop this onslaught of criminals and drugs coming into our country, I’m going to immediately impose a 25% tariff on everything they send into the United States of America,” Trump said. “And it’s only got a 100% chance of working, because if that doesn’t work, I’ll make it 50, and if that doesn’t work, I’ll make it 75 for the tough guys. Then I’ll make it 100…”
Mexico is the top U.S. trading partner, and economists have warned that Trump’s tariff plans would raise costs for U.S. consumers.
The closing advertising messages are very different: “From Ms. Harris and her supporters, those messages cover a mix of kitchen-table issues on the economy and taxes, the fate of legal abortion and the dangers posed by a return of Mr. Trump to the White House,” The New York Times’s Jonathan Weisman reports. “For Mr. Trump and his allies, one message dominates: Defeating Ms. Harris is a matter of life and death. Your death, to be specific.”
The race is once again largely about Trump: “After a summer and early fall of the unexpected and unprecedented, we end this election in a similar place to where we’ve been for the last eight years: with former President Donald Trump once again defining the contours of a presidential election,” Amy Walter of the Cook Political Report wrote on Friday. She added:
Harris’s running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, suggested to a rally audience in Wisconsin today that this race could signal the end of Trump’s political career. “Just tell yourself how great it is going to be,” Walz said. “We will win and when that thing is done we aren’t ever going to have to see this guy on TV again and listen to him.”
We may or may not know the results by Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. In a joint statement issued Monday, the National Association of Secretaries of State and the National Association of State Election Directors said election officials have been planning for tomorrow for four years and are well prepared. “As with any Election Day, it is important to note operational issues may arise: for example, voting locations could open late, there could be lines during busy periods, or an area could lose power. These are inevitable challenges that will arise on Election Day, but election officials have contingency plans for these and other scenarios. Americans can have confidence the election is secure, and the results will be counted accurately.”
They also urged Americans to stay even keeled as they await the election results: “Accurately counting millions of ballots takes time and it is important to be patient.”
Chart of the Day: All Tied Up
In the hours just before Election Day, it looks like the race is essentially tied, much as it has been for months. While different polls produce slightly different results, most show modest leads for either Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump that are well within the margin of error — meaning the election could go either way.
Nate Cohn, the polling guru at The New York Times, said Monday that the race appears to be one of the closest in U.S. history. “Nationwide or across the key battlegrounds collectively, neither Kamala Harris nor Donald J. Trump leads by more than a single percentage point,” Cohn wrote. “Neither candidate holds a meaningful edge in enough states to win 270 electoral votes. In the history of modern polling, there’s never been a race where the final polls showed such a close contest.”
Fiscal News Roundup
- Harris and Trump Make a Furious Final Push Before Election Day – Associated Press
- Trump Talks About Reporters Being Shot and Says He Shouldn’t Have Left White House After 2020 Loss – Associated Press
- Trump Threatens Up to 100 Percent Tariffs on Mexico Over Immigration – Washington Post
- Trump Media Outsourced Jobs to Mexico Even as Trump Pushes “America First” – ProPublica
- Harris’s and Trump’s Closing Messages, as Seen Through Their Ads – New York Times
- Harris Subtly Tags Trump as Backward-Looking Because of Health Care Repeal – Associated Press
- Social Security Becomes an Effective Angle for Unions Working on Turnout for Harris – Associated Press
- Trump’s Crowds Are Dwindling as His Campaign Winds Down – New York Times
- Musk Draws Skepticism With Call for $2 Trillion in Spending Cuts – The Hill
- Trump Expresses Tentative Support for RFK Jr.’s Plan to Remove Fluoride From Water Supply – The Hill
- Nearly $1 Billion Has Been Spent on Political Ads Over the Last Week – CNBC
- Federal Reserve Is Set to Cut Rates Again While Facing a Hazy Post-Election Outlook – Associated Press
- The SALT Deduction Fight Is Coming Back—Whoever Wins the Election – Wall Street Journal
- Nashville Needs an Infrastructure Fix. Will Voters Agree to Pay for It? – New York Times
- Quincy Jones’s Legacy in 14 Essential Songs – New York Times
Views and Analysis
- Fact Check: Trump Begins Final Full Day of Campaign With Repeat Lies About Immigration and Jobs – Daniel Dale, CNN
- Trump Isn’t Perfect, but He’s the Better Choice – Nikki Haley, Wall Street Journal
- We’ve Been Underestimating the Scale of Women’s Fury – Michelle Goldberg, New York Times
- The Dark Last Days of Donald Trump’s Election Campaign – James Politi, Financial Times
- The Polar Opposite Tax Policies of Harris and Trump – Howard Gleckman, Tax Policy Center
- Are Americans Better Off Than They Were Four Years Ago? – Heather Long, Washington Post
- Donald Trump’s Retro Economic Plan Could Be a Disaster – Washington Post Editorial Board
- Why Isn’t Trump Running Away With This? – Matthew Yglesias, New York Times
- Final Senate Rankings: 5 Seats Most Likely to Flip – Al Weaver, The Hill
- The End of the Whole-of-Government Approach? – David Dayen, American Prospect
- GDP Is Stronger With a Blue White House and Red States – Justin Fox, Bloomberg
- Election Outcome Could Bring Big Changes to Medicare – Stephanie Armour, CBS News
- Our Health Care System Is Dysfunctional: Here’s How to Make America Healthy Again – Rep. Chip Roy (R-TX), The Hill
- Win or Lose, Trump Has Already Won – Matthew Schmitz, New York Times
- Editor Jon Ralston’s 2024 Nevada Election Predictions – Jon Ralston, Nevada Independent
- The Core of Kennedy’s Pitch for Trump? Kennedy – Rebecca Davis O’Brien, New York Times
- Trump Has Billions Riding on Whether He Wins – Rick Newman, Yahoo Finance