Happy Thursday! A big night ahead, as former President Donald Trump will officially accept the GOP’s 2024 presidential nomination, his third run as the party’s standard bearer in the last eight years. Will it be a kinder, gentler Trump addressing Republicans and the nation after surviving an assassination attempt just five days ago? “The speech I was going to give on Thursday was going to be a humdinger,” Trump told the Washington Examiner a day after being targeted by a sniper. “Had this not happened, this would’ve been one of the most incredible speeches,” he said, noting that he had planned to attack President Joe Biden’s policies. “Honestly, it’s going to be a whole different speech now.”
Still, it’s hard to believe Trump won’t include some red meat for his base. Whatever Trump says, the dynamics of the race this week couldn’t be much better for him. Republicans are uniting behind their candidate, with former rivals and critics lining up behind him even if he is a convicted felon who failed in his efforts to overturn the 2020 election. And they are being well served by the current contrast with Democrats, who continue to ramp up the pressure on President Joe Biden to drop his re-election bid.
Here’s your evening update.
Top Dems Are Turning the Screws on Biden
As President Joe Biden recovers from Covid in isolation at his beach house in Delaware, the list of prominent Democrats pressuring him to step down from his pursuit of a second term is growing longer by the day.
ABC News’s John Karl reported late Wednesday that Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer told Biden in a private meeting last weekend that he should drop out of the race. A separate report by NBC News says Schumer presented Biden with presumably negative polling data at the meeting. A spokesperson for Schumer said the reports were “idle speculation,” but notably avoided addressing the specific details.
Separately, there are reports that former President Barack Obama has told Democratic leaders that Biden’s path to reelection is narrowing, while former President Trump’s is growing wider. Obama has reportedly said the decision of whether to continue or not is still Biden’s to make, but he believes that Biden should look closely at the viability of his candidacy.
There are also reports that former Speaker Nancy Pelosi has told Biden that the polls show that he will lose to Trump, and that staying in the race could make it harder for Democrats to regain control of the House. Pelosi has reportedly told some House Democrats that she thinks Biden can be convinced to leave the race.
Additionally, The New York Times reported Thursday that Rep. Jamie Raskin, a Democrat from Maryland who played a key role in the investigation of the assault on the Capitol by pro-Trump rioters on January 6, 2021, sent Biden a letter earlier this month that encouraged him to reconsider his nomination. Saying that Biden has been a great democratic leader who protected the country from “the autocrats and monarchists, from Moscow to Mar-A-Lago,” Raskin compared the president to an all-star pitcher who is tiring late in the game. “There is no shame in taking a well-deserved bow to the overflowing appreciation of the crowd when your arm is tired out, and there is real danger for the team in ignoring the statistics,” Raskin wrote.
Donors have been sending messages, too. Jeffrey Katzenberg, the film producer who is one of Biden’s top supporters in Hollywood, reportedly told the president this week that some major donors have doubts about whether he can win. Although Katzenberg said he will continue raise money for Biden, Semafor’s Liz Hoffman and Ben Smith report that donations are drying up. “Money, rather than polling or political support, is typically the trigger for a campaign’s death spiral,” they wrote. “Now Biden is edging toward the brink.”
All in all, the news reports Thursday point toward an increasingly intense campaign by top Democrats and donors to push Biden out of the race. Sen. Peter Welch of Vermont, the first and thus far only senator who has publicly called for Biden to withdraw, said the effort to drive Biden from the ticket appears to be working. “I think it’s happening,” he told The Atlantic’s Russell Berman. “You’re seeing more and more concern by loyal Democrats, longtime supporters of the president. You’re seeing a poll recently that only one-third of Democrats believe he should stay in the race. You’re seeing more private and public expressions of apprehension about what awaits us if we don’t change our candidate.”
Considering alternatives: Although Biden continues to insist that he is staying in the race, with officials saying Thursday that he is preparing to return to the campaign trail next week, there are reports that the president has become more open to hearing arguments as to why he should step down. New polling data showing Biden trailing Trump in seven key swing states (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin) will only add more heft to the argument that he should step aside.
In another sign of possible wavering, earlier this week Biden softened his stance on what could change his mind about staying in, which he previously said would require a message from God. “If I had some medical condition that emerged, if somebody, if doctors came to me and said, you got this problem and that problem,” then he might consider stepping aside, Biden told BET News’s Ed Gordon.
If Biden does change his mind, and Vice President Kamala Harris steps into the lead position on the ticket — a huge if, to be sure — Democrats will need to figure out who will be the new VP. Chris Krueger of the Cowen Washington Research Group on Thursday named four possible running mates: Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper and Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear. “Our base case is that VP Harris would become the nominee,” Krueger wrote, “but uncertainty is at record highs.”
The bottom line: Pressure is growing, and time is running out for Biden to make a change. “His choice is to be one of history's heroes, or to be sure of the fact that there'll never be a Biden presidential library,” one Democratic insider told Axios. “I pray that he does the right thing. He's headed that way.”
Chart of the Day: Biden vs. Trump on the Economy
The Washington Post’s Heather Long and Aden Barton compare the economy under presidents Biden and Trump in a series of charts today. “Trump inherited a lukewarm economy that he pumped up with massive tax cuts and extra government spending,” they write. “Biden inherited a nation still living through the dark days of covid-19. He injected a large dose of government spending and investment and spurred a rapid, widespread rebound. The economy grew fast, added more than 15 million jobs and even saw a renaissance in manufacturing and a surge in start-ups.”
Long and Barton give Biden the edge in 11 of 17 categories, including economic growth, total jobs added, health insurance coverage, child poverty and the federal debt. Trump gets the edge on consumer sentiment, among other categories. “Judging by the data alone, Biden produced better results,” the authors write, “but [the] deep psychological impact of inflation has led most voters to say they trust Trump over Biden on the economy.” So perhaps the only chart you need to see to understand how Americans feel about the Biden economy is this one:
Number of the Day: $1.2 Billion
The Biden administration announced Thursday that it is forgiving about $1.2 billion in student loan debt for 35,000 borrowers who work in public service. The administration said that this latest round of debt relief is the result of fixes to the Public Service Loan Forgiveness (PSLF) program, which supports people who have worked as teachers, nurses, firefighters or in other areas of public service for at least 10 years. “While PSLF has been around since 2007, until recently very few borrowers were able to get debt relief due to its notoriously complex regulations and often misleading guidance from loan companies,” Aimee Picchi of CBS News reports.
The new relief brings the total student loan forgiveness approved by the administration to $168.5 billion, benefiting some 4.8 million borrowers.
Fiscal News Roundup
- Obama, Pelosi and Other Democrats Make a Fresh Push for Biden to Reconsider 2024 Race – Associated Press
- Jeffries, Schumer Privately Warned Biden He Could Imperil Democrats – Washington Post
- Pelosi Privately Told Biden Polls Show He Cannot Win and Will Take Down the House – CNN
- Obama Tells Allies Biden’s Path to Winning Reelection Has Greatly Diminished – Washington Post
- Biden Called ‘More Receptive’ to Hearing Pleas to Step Aside –New York Times
- Donors’ Cash Is Drying up, Katzenberg Warns Biden in Private Meeting – Semafor
- Top Democrats Prepare for Campaign Without Biden – Wall Street Journal
- How Trump Dominated His Own Party on a New G.O.P. Platform – New York Times
- Republican Party Is Trump's Now. Critics Wary His Quest for Power Will Go Unchecked – Reuters
- Covid Summer Wave Spreads Across U.S., Even Infecting Biden – Washington Post
- Hulk Hogan to Speak at RNC Ahead of Trump – The Hill
Views and Analysis
- Fact-Checking Day 3 of the Republican National Convention – FactCheck.org
- Top Dems Now Believe Biden Will Exit – Jim VandeHei and Mike Allen, Axios
- Biden Receives ‘Blunt’ Message From Democratic Leaders as Deadline Nears – Steve Benen, MSNBC
- Democrats’ Biden Drama Adds to Ebullient Mood at the Republican Convention – Dan Balz, Washington Post
- The GOP Still Doesn’t Know What It Would Do With Power – Ramesh Ponnuru, Washington Post
- Trump’s Economy vs. Biden’s — in 17 Charts – Heather Long and Aden Barton, Washington Post
- The Economic Populists Have a Point – Glenn Hubbard, Wall Street Journal
- How to Pay for Trump's Tax Cuts – Veronique de Rugy, Creators Syndicate
- Why the Fed Should Cut Rates Now—Not Wait Until September – Greg Ip, Wall Street Journal
- The Seven Thinkers and Groups That Have Shaped JD Vance’s Unusual World View – Politico