Trump’s Election Odds Soar as He Picks His VP

Good evening. Republicans are gathering in Milwaukee this week, where they officially nominated Donald Trump to be their presidential candidate for a third time. As GOP sets its November ticket, Trump on Monday announced his choice for running mate, concluding a process that he had likened to “a highly sophisticated version of ‘The Apprentice’” by picking Sen. JD Vance of Ohio.

Earlier in the day, the former president got a huge gift from U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon, who dismissed the classified documents case against him in a stunning decision that is expected to be appealed but, for now at least, adds another major win to Trump’s recent streak of good fortune.

Here’s what we’re watching while waiting for the first night of the Republican National Convention, where the prime-time speakers are reportedly scheduled to include Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia and Byron Donalds of Florida; Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson of North Carolina; and Sens. Marsha Blackburn of Tennessee, Katie Britt of Alabama and Tim Scott of South Carolina.

Trump Picks Sen. JD Vance as His Running Mate

Two days after he survived an assassination attempt, former President Donald Trump kicked off this week’s Republican National Convention by tapping 39-year-old first-term Sen. JD Vance of Ohio to join the GOP ticket as his vice-presidential nominee.

Vance, who won out over other GOP contenders, including Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida and Gov. Doug Burgum of North Dakota, may be half Trump’s age, but he’s more closely aligned with Trump’s America First ideology, including support for tariffs, concerns about immigration and opposition to U.S. funding for Ukraine in its war against Russia. Vance is also an election denier who has said that if he had been in Vice President Mike Pence’s position, he would have rejected electoral votes contested by Trump in 2020.

“He is a younger and more articulate version of Trump,” Republican pollster Frank Luntz told Bloomberg.

Vance’s background is much different than Trump’s, though. Vance served as a Marine in the Iraq War before earning a Yale Law degree and becoming a Silicon Valley venture capitalist. He rose to prominence as the author of the bestselling 2016 memoir “Hillbilly Elegy.” He has been in the Senate for less than two years, with his meteoric political rise fueled by a shift from fierce Trump critic (he had called Trump and “idiot” and “unfit for our nation’s highest office”) to loyal MAGA ally — or, as The New York Times put it, “an ambitious ideologue who relishes the spotlight and has already shown he can energize donors on behalf of the presumptive nominee.”

In his statement announcing the pick, Trump said Vance “will be strongly focused on the people he fought so brilliantly for, the American Workers and Farmers in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, Minnesota, and far beyond….”

President Joe Biden knocked Trump’s pick in a fundraising pitch on social media: “Here’s the deal about J.D. Vance. He talks a big game about working people. But now, he and Trump want to raise taxes on middle-class families while pushing more tax cuts for the rich.”

Chart of the Day: Betting on Trump

This weekend’s assassination attempt against Trump dramatically shifts the tenor and substance of the presidential race. Acknowledging that financial journalism “can feel bloodless, if not tasteless, at times like this,” Bloomberg Columnist John Authers nevertheless notes that prediction markets now see a dramatically higher chance of Trump winning another term in the White House, with the Real Clear Politics Trump betting average surging above 63% as of Saturday, when the former president survived a rifle shot.

“The election is four months away, and there is some doubt over whom his competitor will be, so it’s not a done deal. But it looks ever closer to one, and he’s in fantastic political shape,” Authers writes. “Whatever his chances of victory before the assassination attempt, they’re better now. It’s absurd to suggest otherwise. He’s plainly the favorite.”

Authers’ Bloomberg colleagues reported that the “Trump trade is gaining momentum” in financial markets, “based on anticipation that the Republican’s return to the White House would usher in tax cuts, higher tariffs and looser regulations.” But Authers adds that there’s relatively little sign so far of a major bond market revolt against “an agenda that seems almost designed to drive up the deficit and stoke inflation.” He explains: “Either traders don’t think it’s worth pricing in a Trump victory yet, or they don’t think he would be that bad for the bond market. The latter is more likely.”

A Fiscal Twist as Judge Dismisses Trump’s Classified Documents Case

U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon on Monday threw out the federal case involving former President Trump’s allegedly improper retention of dozens of classified documents, ruling that the appointment of the special prosecutor handling the case was unconstitutional.

Cannon, who was appointed to the Southern District of Florida by then-President Trump in 2020, said the appointment of special counsel Jack Smith was unlawful, since he was neither appointed by the president nor confirmed by the Senate, violating the Constitution’s Appointments Clause.

“The Appointments Clause is a critical constitutional restriction stemming from the separation of powers, and it gives Congress a considered role in determining the propriety of vesting appointment power for inferior officers,” Cannon wrote in her decision, referring to the special counsel. “The Special Counsel’s position effectively usurps this important legislative authority, transferring it to a Head of Department, and in the process threatening the structural liberty inherent in the separation of powers.”

In addition, Cannon ruled that the special counsel violated the Appropriations Clause of the Constitution, since Congress did not properly appropriate the funds to operate the counsel’s office.

“For more than 18 months, Special Counsel Smith’s investigation and prosecution has been financed by substantial funds drawn from the Treasury without statutory authorization, and to try to rewrite history at this point seems near impossible,” Cannon wrote. “The Court has difficulty seeing how a remedy short of dismissal would cure this substantial separation-of-powers violation.”

A boost from Thomas: Cannon’s ruling comes just weeks after Justice Clarence Thomas expressed doubts about the legal status of the special counsel. In an unusual, solo concurrence to the Supreme Court decision that granted U.S. presidents substantial immunity for actions taken in office — a decision that could benefit Trump enormously in his various criminal trials — Thomas said there are “serious questions” about whether Attorney General Merrick Garland acted properly in appointing a special counsel whose office had not been established explicitly by law. Cannon quoted from Thomas’s concurrence in her ruling Monday.

Still, some legal experts say that the question about the status of special counsels has already been adjudicated, including in the case of Robert Mueller, the former FBI director who was appointed to investigate connections between Trump and Russian intelligence efforts to interfere with the 2016 election; Mueller’s appointment was challenged in court but found to be legitimate.

The special counsel’s office said it plans to appeal Cannon’s decision. “The dismissal of the case deviates from the uniform conclusion of all previous courts to have considered the issue that the Attorney General is statutorily authorized to appoint a Special Counsel," spokesperson Peter Carr said in a statement.

Number of the Day: $3.1 Billion

In the wake of what appears to be significant failures by the Secret Service as it provided security for former President Donald Trump in Pennsylvania on Saturday, some have asked whether budget constraints played a role in the agency’s shortcomings. Roll Call’s Peter Cohn points out that the Secret Service, which is part of the Homeland Security Department, received a 9% increase in appropriations in the current fiscal year, totaling nearly $3.1 billion — its largest budget in an election year in decades. “Any errors in judgment or personnel deployment don’t appear to be for lack of money,” Cohn wrote.

Fiscal News Roundup

• Trump Selects Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance as His Running Mate – CNN
• J.D. Vance on the Issues, From Abortion to the Middle East – New York Times
• Private Meeting, Billionaires and a G6 Gulfstream: The Backstory on How Trump Picked Vance – Politico
• J.D. Vance’s Journey From a ‘Never Trump’ Guy to Trump’s VP Pick – Washington Post
• ‘I’m a Never Trump Guy’: All of J.D. Vance’s Trump Quotes That Could Come Back to Bite Him – Politico
• 55 Things to Know About J.D. Vance, Trump's VP Pick – Politico
• Both Sides Skeptical That Calls for Unity Will Stick – The Hill
• Federal Judge Dismisses Trump Classified Documents Case Over Concerns with Prosecutor’s Appointment – Associated Press
• The RNC’s First Day Will Still Focus on the Economy. Here’s What to Know About Trump’s Plans – Associated Press
• Powell Says Recent Data Raise Confidence Inflation on Path to 2% – Bloomberg
• Global Markets Ramp Up the ‘Trump Trade’ After Rally Attack – Bloomberg
• China’s Economy Slowed in the Last Quarter as Weak Consumer Demand Dragged on Growth – Associated Press

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