Trump Threatens ‘Very Severe Tariffs’ on Russia

Good evening! President Trump lobbed another tariff threat on Monday, this time as part of a pressure campaign to have Russia's Vladimir Putin end the war in Ukraine. Over in Congress, the Senate is preparing to take up Trump's $9.4 billion package of cuts to foreign aid and public broadcasting ahead of July 18 deadline. House lawmakers, meanwhile, will be considering an $831.5 billion Pentagon funding package and a defense policy bill for fiscal 2026. Let's get to it.

Trump Threatens 'Very Severe Tariffs' on Russia if No Peace Deal

President Trump on Monday promised to enact punishing new tariffs on Russia if President Vladimir Putin doesn't agree to end his war against Ukraine.

"We're going to be doing very severe tariffs if we don't have a deal in 50 days," Trump said during an Oval Office meeting with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte.

The U.S. doesn't trade much with Russia so 100% tariffs may not hurt Moscow much, but Trump would also levy 100% "secondary tariffs" on Russian trading partners - countries like China and India that buy Russian oil and gas, for example - as he tries to pressure Moscow to end the war that has been raging since February 2022.

Trump also unveiled a new partnership that will see European allies buy U.S. weapons systems, including Patriot missile batteries, so they can deliver weaponry to Ukraine, which has faced a renewed onslaught of aerial attacks from Russia. Trump said the plan calls for European countries to send Ukraine missiles from their existing stocks and then replace those weapons with new purchases from the United States.

Trump on Monday again tried to distance himself from the war, but his economic threat against Moscow and his plans to bolster Ukraine's military defenses nevertheless represent a marked shift in Trump's views on the conflict and the players involved, Putin in particular.

"It wasn't my war. It was Biden's war," Trump insisted again on Monday. But he made clear he's unhappy with Putin and the continuing attacks on Ukraine. Trump said that there have been "about four times" that he thought a deal was close at hand. He said he's had friendly conversations with Putin but the Russian leader has repeatedly dashed efforts at peace: "I speak to him a lot about getting this thing done, and I always hang up and say, 'Well, that was a nice phone call' and then missiles are launched into Kyiv or some other city," Trump said. "And after that happens three of four times, you say the talk doesn't mean anything."

Trump's announcement comes just days after the Pentagon paused weapons shipments to Ukraine as part of a review of American military stockpiles. That move was reportedly authorized by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth without notifying the White House. After he learned about the pause, Trump reportedly instructed Hegseth to resume shipments.

Trump's efforts to squeeze Putin come as the Senate has prepared a bipartisan package of severe sanctions against Russia, which could involve tariffs even higher than 100%. "I'm not sure we need it, but it's certainly good that they're doing it," Trump said Monday. "It could be very useful, we'll have to see."

Trump threatens other tariffs: Over the weekend, the president also threatened to impose new 30% tariffs on goods from Mexico and the European Union starting August 1.

Congress Gears Up for Another Round of Funding Fights

The annual appropriations process is, once again, a slow-moving mess - and it got worse last week as the Senate Appropriation Committee's consideration of the Justice Department funding bill got derailed by a dispute over the Trump administration's plan to move the FBI's headquarters to a building in Washington, D.C., rather than a site previously chosen in Maryland.

But as Congress tries to make progress toward funding the government for fiscal year 2026, House Appropriations Chair Tom Cole told Politico on Monday that congressional Republicans are still discussing topline spending levels but would likely be looking for a funding total above what the White House requested.

"We certainly are going to cut spending, but we probably are not going to be cutting at the level that [Office of Management and Budget] might have suggested," Cole told Politico. "They've been very helpful in this process. I'm not being critical of them, but at the end of the day, we have to maintain some critical capabilities."

That decision that could draw fierce blowback from fiscal conservatives who expressed concerns about the GOP's big tax-and-spending package before ultimately helping it pass.

Cole reportedly also acknowledged that a stopgap spending bill may be needed to avoid a government shutdown after the end of the fiscal year on September 30.

The bottom line: The House and Senate still have a loooong way to go on government funding and very few legislative days remaining before September. Differences between the two chambers and the Trump administration mean that the funding fight could get ugly - and the White House could get more aggressive in challenging Congress's power of the purse.

Numbers of the Day: $3.728 Billion and 382

As the annual appropriations process drags on, House Republicans today released a trio of funding bills covering Interior and Environment; National Security and the State Department; and Commerce, Justice and Science. Two other funding bills - one for Transportation and Housing and the other for Energy and Water - were released on Sunday.

The House Appropriations Committee summary of the transportation bill says it includes "$3.728 billion in Community Project Funding" - aka, earmarks - for 2,369 projects requested by 382 members. That's 382 members out of the 435 in the House. A little something for almost every district. You can peruse the table of earmarks here.

Fiscal News Roundup

• House Debates Pentagon Spending, Crypto as Rescissions Head to Senate - Roll Call
• Supreme Court Allows Mass Layoffs at Education Department as Trump Seeks to Close the Agency - Politico
• How Trump Plans to Dismantle the Education Department After Supreme Court Ruling - Associated Press
• States Sue Over 'Plainly Against the Law' Trump $6B Education Funding Pause - ABC News
• In Rush to Satisfy Trump, GOP Delivers Blow to Health Industry - KFF Health News
• GOP Leader Faces Showdown With Republicans on Trump-Backed Funding Cuts - The Hill
• A Senate Vote This Week Will Test the Popularity of DOGE Spending Cuts - Associated Press
• A Tough Week for Susan Collins - Politico
• Public Broadcasters Brace for Vote on Sharp Funding Cut - New York Times
• He Helped Big Companies Dodge Taxes. Now He's Writing the Rules. - New York Times
• Facing Painful Cuts, the V.A. Reported Dubious Savings to DOGE - New York Times
• New Medicaid Work Rules Put States in a Bind - Axios
• It's No Bluff: The Tariff Rate Is Soaring Under Trump - New York Times
• EU Warns Trump's 30% Tariffs Would Eliminate Transatlantic Trade - Financial Times
• China's Exports Jump in June Amid Trade War Truce With US - Financial Times

Views and Analysis

• Trump's Megabill Is Creating a Budget Nightmare for States - Liz Crampton and Nick Resiman, Politico
• Another Winner From the New Federal Budget: Older Americans - C. Eugene Steuerle and Glenn Kramon, Washington Post
• Food Banks Are Running Out of Food Exactly When More Americans Will Need Them - Wall Street Journal
• The Stealth Attack on Women in Trump's Budget Bill - Casey Quinlan, New Republic
• A New Era of Hunger Has Begun - Tracy Kidder, New York Times
• 'Beautiful' or 'Ugly,' Trump's Big Bill Shapes the Battle for House Control in 2026 Midterms - Bill Barrow, Jonathan J. Cooper and Jack Brook, Associated Press
• Is America Breaking the Global Economy? - Mohamed A. El-Erian, Foreign Affairs
• Russia's Frozen $245 Billion Can Pay for Ukraine's Arms - Marc Champion, Bloomberg
• Trump Must Not TACO His Way Out of Helping Ukraine - Washington Post Editorial Board
• Is the U.S. Ready for the Next War? - Dexter Filkins, New Yorker
• Trump Soaks the Rich - Toby Nangle, Financial Times
• How Trump's Latest Tariff Threat Risks Deeper Damage to Europe's Economy - Liz Alderman and Melissa Eddy, New York Times

Fiscal News Roundup

• House Debates Pentagon Spending, Crypto as Rescissions Head to Senate – Roll Call
• Supreme Court Allows Mass Layoffs at Education Department as Trump Seeks to Close the Agency – Politico
• How Trump Plans to Dismantle the Education Department After Supreme Court Ruling – Associated Press
• States Sue Over 'Plainly Against the Law' Trump $6B Education Funding Pause – ABC News
• In Rush to Satisfy Trump, GOP Delivers Blow to Health Industry – KFF Health News
• GOP Leader Faces Showdown With Republicans on Trump-Backed Funding Cuts – The Hill
• A Senate Vote This Week Will Test the Popularity of DOGE Spending Cuts – Associated Press
• A Tough Week for Susan Collins – Politico
• Public Broadcasters Brace for Vote on Sharp Funding Cut – New York Times
• He Helped Big Companies Dodge Taxes. Now He's Writing the Rules. – New York Times
• Facing Painful Cuts, the V.A. Reported Dubious Savings to DOGE – New York Times
• New Medicaid Work Rules Put States in a Bind – Axios
• It's No Bluff: The Tariff Rate Is Soaring Under Trump – New York Times
• EU Warns Trump's 30% Tariffs Would Eliminate Transatlantic Trade – Financial Times
• China's Exports Jump in June Amid Trade War Truce With US – Financial Times

Views and Analysis

• Trump's Megabill Is Creating a Budget Nightmare for States – Liz Crampton and Nick Resiman, Politico
• Another Winner From the New Federal Budget: Older Americans – C. Eugene Steuerle and Glenn Kramon, Washington Post
• Food Banks Are Running Out of Food Exactly When More Americans Will Need Them – Wall Street Journal
• The Stealth Attack on Women in Trump's Budget Bill – Casey Quinlan, New Republic
• A New Era of Hunger Has Begun – Tracy Kidder, New York Times
• 'Beautiful' or 'Ugly,' Trump's Big Bill Shapes the Battle for House Control in 2026 Midterms – Bill Barrow, Jonathan J. Cooper and Jack Brook, Associated Press
• Is America Breaking the Global Economy? – Mohamed A. El-Erian, Foreign Affairs
• Russia's Frozen $245 Billion Can Pay for Ukraine's Arms – Marc Champion, Bloomberg
• Trump Must Not TACO His Way Out of Helping Ukraine – Washington Post Editorial Board
• Is the U.S. Ready for the Next War? – Dexter Filkins, New Yorker
• Trump Soaks the Rich – Toby Nangle, Financial Times
• How Trump's Latest Tariff Threat Risks Deeper Damage to Europe's Economy – Liz Alderman and Melissa Eddy, New York Times