House Passes Budget Blueprint in a Squeaker

Speaker Mike Johnson (Sipa USA)

It came down to the wire and then some, but Republicans passed the spending blueprint for what President Donald Trump has called a “big, beautiful bill” that would provide tax and spending cuts, money for border security and new assistance for the gas and oil industry. 

The vote was a bit chaotic as the GOP whip team tried to rally support from a handful of Republican lawmakers Tuesday evening, and at one point it appeared that the bill had been pulled from the floor and lawmakers sent home. But a few minutes later, the vote was back on and the bill passed as three of the four holdouts changed their minds.

The final vote was 217-215, with all Democrats voting against the bill, joined by one Republican, Rep. Thomas Massie of Kentucky. Republican Reps. Warren Davidson of Ohio, Victoria Spartz of Indiana and Tim Burchett of Tennessee had spent the day saying they would vote no based on what they said were insufficient spending cuts in the bill, but flipped following pressure from party leaders and, in two of the cases, direct pressure from Trump. 

Speaker Mike Johnson celebrated after the vote. “We got it done,” he said. “This is the first important step in opening up the reconciliation process. We have a lot of hard work ahead of us. We are going to deliver the America First agenda.”

President Trump offered his congratulations, saying on social media that the bill’s passage was a “Big First Step Win for Speaker Mike Johnson.” Trump also called on lawmakers to “start to BALANCE THE BUDGET. IT CAN BE DONE!!!” – a bit of a surprise given that neither the House bill nor a competing Senate bill comes anywhere close to balancing the budget. 

Massie, the sole Republican holdout, stuck to his guns, saying he couldn’t support the bill because the budget plan would make the debt and deficit worse. Explaining his position before the vote, he said: “If the Republican plan passes under the rosiest assumptions, which aren’t even true, we’re going to add $328 billion to the deficit this year, we’re going to add $295 billion to the deficit the year after that, and $242 billion to the deficit after that, under the rosiest assumptions. Why would I vote for that?”

Democrats, meanwhile, criticized the bill in stark terms. “They chose their billionaire puppet masters over the American people,” said Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries. “Democrats were unified, and we will remain unified throughout this process, because this reckless Republican budget will bring nothing but destruction to the American people.”

What’s in the bill: The budget blueprint defines the general limits for a more detailed budget bill the House plans to write by April. It authorizes $4.8 trillion in tax cuts and spending increases over 10 years, along with as much as $2 trillion in spending cuts. It would also allow Congress to increase the deficit by $2.8 trillion and raise the debt ceiling by $4 trillion. 

The largest spending cut falls under the Energy and Commerce Committee. No further details have been decided upon at this point, but given the programs that are overseen by this particular committee, it seems a safe bet that much of the spending reduction will have to come out of Medicaid. Although Trump has vowed not to touch the country’s healthcare programs, Medicare could also see reductions. 

Other spending cuts called for in the bill include at least $330 billion by the Education and Work Force Committee, which could affect student loan and school lunch programs; at least $230 billion by the Agriculture Committee, which could hit food assistance; and at least $562 billion from other committees that are not named. 

In terms of spending increases, the blueprint calls for $200 billion more for the Judiciary and Homeland Security Committees, which include Immigration and Customs Enforcement and U.S. Customs and Border Protection; and $100 billion for the military.

Much more work ahead: The House cleared an important hurdle on Tuesday, but there will be more challenges in the coming weeks. One potential stumbling block is the duration of the extension of the 2017 tax cuts. The House plan would not make the tax cuts permanent, but Republicans in the Senate and Trump say they want a bill that would. “I hope the House and Senate are able to agree on making the Tax Cuts PERMANENT!” Trump said on his social media platform Wednesday. 

More broadly, defining which programs are to be cut could be difficult, especially as it becomes clear that popular and widely used programs are coming under the knife. The House must reach an agreement with the Senate, as well, providing another source of potential delay and difficulty in the coming months.