Gary Cohn, President Trump’s top economic adviser, seems pretty confident that Congress can produce a tax bill in a hurry. He told the Financial Times (paywall) last week that the Ways and Means Committee should be write a bill “in the next three of four weeks.” But most experts doubt that such a complicated undertaking can be accomplished so quickly. In a note to clients this week, J.P. Morgan analysts said they don’t expect to see a tax bill passed until mid-2018, following months of political wrangling:

“There will likely be months of committee hearings, lobbying by affected groups, and behind-the-scenes horse trading before final tax legislation emerges. Our baseline forecast continues to pencil in a modest, temporary, deficit-financed tax cut to be passed in 2Q2018 through the reconciliation process, avoiding the need to attract 60 votes in the Senate.”