Tensions between the United States and China continue to escalate in the South China Sea, with freedom of navigation in one of the world's most critical maritime passages potentially at stake.
With no resolution in sight, both sides are ramping up their military capabilities in the massive body of water, potentially including nuclear weaponry and anti-ballistic missiles.
Related: The Pentagon Is Endangering Our Economic Ties With China
"This has become a military contest between China and the U.S.," said Jennifer Harris, former member of the policy planning staff at the U.S. Department of State and a foreign relations expert.
The so-called "nine-dash line" that China has drawn over most of the South China Sea — a gargantuan territorial claim that stretches about 1,200 miles from its shores — would give Beijing control over a zone that's estimated to handle about half of global merchant shipping, a third of the planet's oil shipping, two-thirds of global liquid natural gas shipments, and more than a 10th of Earth's fish catch. Most nations in the region are dependent on the free flow of goods through the body of water. Japan and South Korea, for example, receive the vast majority of their Persian Gulf oil through the South China Sea.
For the United States, the conflict is geopolitical and a way to portray U.S. supremacy in the Pacific while also exercising — and enforcing — long-running international laws that pertain to navigational freedom for every nation's ships.
For China, it's personal. While the 20th-Century war with Japan may seem like a distant memory to many in the Western world, the Chinese continue to reference that conflict as one of the worst periods in the China's history — one from which wounds to national pride still have not healed.
Related: Watch China’s Military Go Hip-Hop in a Wild Recruitment Video
"A lot of drama has been left behind from the war with Japan," said Fu Ying, chair of the foreign affairs committee of China's National People's Congress in Beijing. As a result, China is less willing to back down now when it feels its territorial claims are at stake.
With no resolution in sight, both sides are ramping up their military capabilities in the massive body of water, potentially including nuclear weaponry and anti-ballistic missiles.
"This has become a military contest between China and the U.S.," said Jennifer Harris, former member of the policy planning staff at the U.S. Department of State and a foreign relations expert.
The so-called "nine-dash line" that China has drawn over most of the South China Sea — a gargantuan territorial claim that stretches about 1,200 miles from its shores — would give Beijing control over a zone that's estimated to handle about half of global merchant shipping, a third of the planet's oil shipping, two-thirds of global liquid natural gas shipments, and more than a 10th of Earth's fish catch. Most nations in the region are dependent on the free flow of goods through the body of water. Japan and South Korea, for example, receive the vast majority of their Persian Gulf oil through the South China Sea.
Related: South China Sea set to dominate Singapore security summit
For the United States, the conflict is geopolitical and a way to portray U.S. supremacy in the Pacific while also exercising — and enforcing — long-running international laws that pertain to navigational freedom for every nation's ships.
For China, it's personal. While the 20th-Century war with Japan may seem like a distant memory to many in the Western world, the Chinese continue to reference that conflict as one of the worst periods in the China's history — one from which wounds to national pride still have not healed.
"A lot of drama has been left behind from the war with Japan," said Fu Ying, chair of the foreign affairs committee of China's National People's Congress in Beijing. As a result, China is less willing to back down now when it feels its territorial claims are at stake.
The question confronting leaders is this: What event or provocation will warrant an aggressive response?
Related: China tells U.S., don't let allies set South China Sea policy
Officials are closely watching a decision that's due from the Hague in the coming weeks on an appeal from the Philippines regarding a claim on islands in the South China Sea.
An adverse decision or outcome for China could push Xi's regime to "declare an ADIZ (Air Defense Identification Zone) in the South China Sea — just as it did in the East China Sea back in November 2013," said Harris.
Harris said this would essentially entail China drawing lines in the air mirroring the same maritime lines it has drawn in the South China Sea waters below.
Another factor that could push China to assert itself more generally is the U.S. deployment of a THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense) anti-ballistic missile system close to South Korea. While the main objective of this deployment would be to protect its ally from North Korea, experts say China would see this as a great threat.
"The Chinese believe — wrongly — that the use of a THAAD would compromise their nuclear deterrent capability," said Dr. Evan Medeiros, head of Asia research at Eurasia and previously President Barack Obama's top adviser on Asia-Pacific affairs.
"The deployment of a THAAD in South Korea would be significant because it would open a new source of tensions in China-South Korea relations," added Medeiros. South Korea does not border the South China Sea.
The onus is now on leaders in China, neighboring ASEAN countries and the Uited States to engineer a solution that will likely involve compromise from all nations involved. Political strategists will be watching for developments out of the U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue in Washington next week.
"The risk of disruption comes from how hard the U.S. is willing to press the issue, and how central the islands are to its geopolitical agenda — something U.S. diplomats are well aware of," said China expert Gilliam Collinsworth Hamilton, head of NSBO's Beijing office.
This article originally appeared on CNBC. Read more from CNBC:
The US may have actually lost jobs in May, economist says
A behind-the-scenes force may explain the awful jobs report, says ex-Obama aide
