With the Federal Reserve's latest policy-setting meeting in the rearview mirror, the coming week should have Wall Street switching its focus to the U.S. and global economy, starting on Monday with a look at the health of the manufacturing sector.
"I'm really focused on the PMI; we'll see on Monday how the rest of the quarter looks," said James Liu, global market strategist at JPMorgan Funds, referring to the Markit U.S. flash manufacturing PMI for March.
"Now that the Fed is out of the way, investors will probably turn their attention to more fundamental issues, as there is more data than anything else next week," said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at Wunderlich Securities.
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"The PMIs across the globe will start the week off with pretty solid impressions of the global economy; Sunday night is China, then the euro zone, then the U.S.," added Hogan.
A strong preliminary March PMI reading for the U.S. would "bode really well for the market as it would validate the U.S. economy despite the weather," said Liu. A measure of consumer confidence in March comes Tuesday, followed on Wednesday by orders for U.S. durable goods in February. But both data points could be viewed as tainted by the harsh winter across much of the nation.
"My opinion is the underlying growth trajectory of the U.S. economy is still really strong, but we spent the first three months debating whether it was the weather or a real slowdown," said Liu, who believes the weather was a factor: "If you can't even get outside, it's hard to buy a car."
"Consumer confidence will be less important, as it is still impacted by the contemplation of what the last two months have looked like, and durable goods for February also falls in the weather belt," said Hogan.
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Thursday brings weekly jobless claims and an index of pending home sales, followed by data on consumer spending and income on Friday. Beyond a daily offering of economic reports, the week also brings some corporate earnings, speeches by five Fed officials and news coverage of President Barack Obama's travels through Europe.
"We'll probably listen to Fed speakers, but I think economic data will take the front row here, in terms of attention," said Hogan. The second focus point for Wall Street "might be what's going on in Russia and Ukraine, as it's not entirely over," Hogan added.
The week follows another weekly advance on Wall Street, with the S&P 500 hitting another intraday record on Friday before clearing gains as investors turned cautious ahead of the weekend.
Monday
Earnings: Sonic
8:30 a.m.: Chicago Fed national activity index
9:00 a.m.: Fed's Stein speaks
9:45 a.m.: PMI manufacturing index flash for March
1:45 p.m.: Fed's Fisher speaks
Tuesday
Earnings: Carnival, HD Supply Holdings; McCormick & Co., Walgreen, PVH,Five Below, Steelcase
9:00 a.m.: FHFA home prices for January
9:00 a.m.: S&P Case-Shiller home prices for January
10 a.m.: New home sales for February
10 a.m.: Consumer confidence for March
10: a.m.: Richmond Fed manufacturing index
1 p.m.: Two-year note auction
4 p.m.: Fed's Lockhart speaks
7 p.m.: Fed's Plosser speaks
Wednesday
Earnings: Paychex
2 a.m.: Fed's Bullard speaks
7 a.m.: Mortgage applications
8:30 a.m.: Durable goods orders for February
9:45 a.m.: PMI services flash
10:30 a.m.: Oil inventories
1 p.m.: Five-year note auction
Thursday
Earnings: Accenture, Lululemon Athletica, Signet Jewelers, Commercial Metals, GameStop, Leidos Holdings, Winnebago Industries, Worthington Industries, Red Hat, Oxford Industries, Restoration Hardware Holdings,Voxeljet
8:30 a.m.: GDP revision Q4
8:30 a.m.: Weekly jobless claims
8:30 a.m.: Fed's Pianalto speaks
10 a.m.: Pending home sales index for February
10:30 a.m.: Natural gas inventories
11 a.m.: Kansas City Fed manufacturing index
1 p.m.: Seven-year note auction
4 p.m. Fed balance sheet/money supply
9:30 p.m.: Fed's Evans speaks
Friday
Earnings: Blackberry
8:30 a.m.: Personal income and consumer spending for February
9:55 a.m.: University of Michigan/Reuters consumer sentiment for March
1:15 p.m.: Fed's George speaks
This article originally appeared in CBNC.
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