A new report from the Center for Migration Studies of New York shows a marked decline in the number of illegal immigrants in the United States. The study confirms previous signs that the decades-long flood of undocumented workers from Mexico abated – and even reversed course – during the worst of the Great Recession.
The findings put a crimp in the narrative of Republican presidential frontrunner Donald Trump and other GOP leaders that the U.S.-Mexico border is awash in illegal crossings that call for an immediate response, including the construction of a 2,000 mile-wall and the mass deportation of virtually every illegal immigrant in the country.
Related: Paul Ryan Rejects Trump’s Plan to Deport 12 Million Illegal Immigrants
“One reason for the high and sustained level of interest in undocumented immigration is the widespread belief that the trend in the undocumented population is ever upward,” wrote Robert Warren, a former demographer for the U.S. Immigration and Naturalization Service and author of the report. “This paper shows that this belief is mistaken and that, in fact, the undocumented population has been decreasing for more than a half a decade.”
The illegal immigrant population declined in 2014 for the seventh consecutive year. For the first time since 2004, the undocumented population fell below 11 million, the study found. Previous estimates, including one by the Pew Research Center, put the illegal population at as much as 11.3 million, with most of those men, women and children concentrated in California, Texas, New York and Florida.
The new report, drawing on statistics compiled by the Census Bureau, found that the undocumented immigrant population totals 10.9 million. The decline was due in part to a diminished flow of illegals from South America and Europe, even while there were repeated surges of illegal crossings by people fleeing gang violence and extreme poverty in Central America.
However, the biggest factor by far in the change was the sharp drop in illegal immigration from Mexico during the past decade, as many were discouraged by declining opportunities in an economy slowed by recession and stepped up enforcement along the border. Moreover, many potential immigrants may have been reacting to the tough laws passed by some states designed to crack down on illegal immigrants and those who employed or sheltered them.
Related : U.S. immigration case could set limits on presidential power
The population of Mexican-born illegal immigrants in the United States declined by 600,000 between 2010 and 2014, according to the report. Roughly 250,000 fewer illegal immigrants from Mexico resided in California in 2014 when compared to 2010. And perhaps even more telling was that between 1980 and 2014, “the legally resident population from Mexico grew faster than the Mexican undocumented population,” the study said.
According to the report, tougher state immigration laws in 2010 and 2011 had relatively little impact on the flow of illegal immigrants, with the exception of Arizona and possibly Georgia. “Based on the trends in the undocumented population in Georgia and Arizona, it does not appear that the legislation in those two states had a lasting impact on the size of either population,” the report stated. “Population decline had already begun in both states before the laws were passed, and the population could have fallen to the 2014 levels even if the legislation had not been enacted.”
